[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221813 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEBRASKA...EXTREME NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221813Z - 222015Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL FORM BY 20Z OVER NERN CO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD
INTO EXTREME NWRN KS.  WW WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 20Z.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING TREND IN TCU / CB
DEVELOPMENT OVER CO AND WY INTO WRN NEB...AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/LIFT MOVE NEWD OVER CO. AT THE
SURFACE...AXIS OF 50 + DEWPOINTS EXTENDS INTO NERN CO.

A CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID
DESTABILIZATION AND THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITHIN MOIST
AXIS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL BE HIGHEST AND SURFACE WINDS
BACKED.  HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
THE THREAT OF EXTREMELY DAMAGING HAIL STORMS BY THE TIME STORMS
ENTER SWRN NEBRASKA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

38980202 38910265 39160360 39500406 39830496 40700489
40980400 41580378 41170127 40450121