[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210303 
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...ERN NEB...NRN KS AND SW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210303Z - 210430Z

SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS
SRN NEB AND NRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
CONVECTION WILL BE HAIL ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
ALSO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL
KS EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH BACKED NELY FLOW NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. A CAPPING INVERSION IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEB...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE CAP. THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY
ERODE THE CAP LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP
THE CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS
ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...BASES SHOULD BE
ELEVATED. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN KS
INTO FAR SRN NEB WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ALSO...THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY GAIN ACCESS TO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS.

..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38669917 38480126 38580264 39380276 40750277 41010079
41459826 42119650 42009598 41129518 39759515 

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