[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181654 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-181800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH WRN PA WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181654Z - 181800Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES AIR MASS.  SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WHICH WILL
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE NOW IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER OH INTO
WRN PA...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN
LOWER MI AND SWRN ONTARIO.  DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OH...AND NEAR
LAKE BREEZE OVER FAR NWRN PA AND WRN NY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL OVER OH...BUT STRENGTHENS INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE ACROSS
WRN NY AND PA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

..EVANS.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

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