[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181655 
OHZ000-INZ000-181900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN IND AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181655Z - 181900Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN IND INTO WRN OH. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND
UNLESS MORE PRONOUNCED LINEAR ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIKELY...A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. 

LATEST PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FLOW OVER THIS AREA REMAINS
IN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND
EAST...WITH 20-25 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM. DESPITE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE
EXTENDING FROM LAF ENEWD TO NEAR GSH WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000
J/KG...LACK OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
DESPITE LINEAR ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED...DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD BE MITIGATED.  ADDITIONALLY...20 KTS OF O-6 KM SHEAR WILL
ALLOW MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH A LIMITED LARGE HAIL
THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

39738741 40248751 40668742 41278586 41268442 40558358
39578405 39338569 

WWWW