[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170121 
MNZ000-IAZ000-170315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170121Z - 170315Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN MN.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN THIS
EVENING OWING TO NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY.
THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUGHLY SW-NE
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PQN TO ULM TO NEAR THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS.

PROGRESSIVELY LATER THIS EVENING AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE...ISOLD LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY HAZARD. SCENARIO SUPPORTED
BY INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KTS PER WOOD LAKE PROFILER/
AND DOWNSTREAM ADVECTION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /E.G. 8.0 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATE IN 00Z OAX SOUNDING.

..GUYER.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

43609596 44189614 45239562 45559333 44759287 43879263
43439315 43359486 

WWWW