[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122222 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-122315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN WI/WRN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...

VALID 122222Z - 122315Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 192 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EWD INTO
ERN WI/WRN-MID UPPER MI THROUGH 02Z.  GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE OF
ADDITIONAL THREATS...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO NERN IA.
 SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE
SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT.  THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH SUPPORTS LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AS
IS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS.  SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
OVER WI/UPPER MI SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD MOVING BOW SEGMENT OVER
NRN/CENTRAL WI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY
BEYOND 02-03Z SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
BE MARGINAL GIVEN TREND FOR WEAKENING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND
EXPECT 20-30 KT EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME OR
SLOWLY DECREASE.

..PETERS.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX...

43148804 42819036 42809209 44149096 44968982 45998951
46908896 47128861 46648659 45358666 43558777 

WWWW