[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122141 
OKZ000-TXZ000-122315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK AND NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122141Z - 122315Z

MONITORING AREAS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITH THE NEXT HOUR. 

A DOUBLE STRUCTURE DRY LINE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF GAGE SSWWD TO NEAR CDS/LBB AND
ANOTHER FROM EAST OF CSM TO LTS TO NEAR ABI. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...IT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS BACK TO SSELY IN THE MOIST AIR. THE AIR MASS
HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES FROM
3000 TO 4000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ONLY
AT 20-30 KT ...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS MOVING IN FROM WRN TX/NM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED STORMS WITH A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.

..IMY.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

35000009 35869974 36219841 36389767 32599909 32570011
33120079 

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