[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121629 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-121830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121629Z - 121830Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY.  SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AND
WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING WITHIN 60+F
SURFACE DEW POINT AXIS AHEAD OF FRONT NOW SUPPORTING MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO NERN IA/SERN MN.  12Z SOUNDING FROM
MSP INDICATED LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER STEEP...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS FRONT
PROGRESSES EWD THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE.  HOWEVER...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SBCAPES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM
INTO LINES AND/OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT. 
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY WARRANT A WW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

..EVANS.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

42379345 43259376 44689315 46009226 46189128 45339038
43819048 42499093 

WWWW