[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120421 
LAZ000-120615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 120421Z - 120615Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS PERSISTED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED CENTER OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY SHIFTING ACROSS TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS. RECENT INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED NEAR LAKE CHARLES
LA...WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S LIKELY
SUPPORTED MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  ENOUGH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRED NEAR RAIN CORE FOR EVOLUTION OF WEAK
SMALL COLD POOL...WHICH IS SURGING EAST AROUND 30 KT...TOWARD
LAFAYETTE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...WITH PERHAPS SOME HAIL IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS REDEVELOPING
UPSTREAM ABOVE COLD POOL.  HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
PROGGED TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS MOIST ENVIRONMENT EAST OF LAFAYETTE.

..KERR.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

30669304 30859232 30689158 30309110 29649082 29179103
29249164 29449237 29389297 29939329 30259318 

WWWW