[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082245 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-090045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...

VALID 082245Z - 090045Z

CONTINUE WW.

ANOTHER WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH  APPEARS TO BE
MIGRATING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE TO
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...WITH
ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM...INTO
AREAS SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...AND VICINITY OF NORFOLK NEB.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS THROUGH THE 01-02Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41649913 41979767 42569649 42829520 42849375 42349259
42319189 42219123 41789114 41569267 41249357 40889517
40809653 40789785 41449939 

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