[MCD] SWOMCD

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS11 KWNS 061437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061436 
MIZ000-061630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061436Z - 061630Z

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING LOWER MI. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS EXPANDING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SPEED MAX AROUND 700 MB. AS A RESULT...A
BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD...SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY STARTING ABOVE 700 MB AND OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED. 500 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -15
C AND LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8.5 C/KM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND THE
FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY AIR MAY FAVOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS
WELL.

..BROYLES.. 05/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

44848600 45108548 45518519 45708476 45528393 45218339
44798330 44138354 43668389 43468407 43408458 43478597
43618658 44378647 

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