[MCD] SWOMCD

[calvinfs at goshen.edu]

ACUS11 KWNS 060559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060559 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA....SRN MN....EXTREME WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 060559Z - 060800Z

TSTMS MAY INCRS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IA/SRN MN...AND SPREAD ESE TO
WRN WI THROUGH 09Z. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LONE TSTM CELL RECENTLY INITIATED NEAR SURFACE WAVE/WARM FRONT
ACROSS NWRN IA IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON 35KT LLJ. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY AND
CAPPED...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM...AND
LOCAL/MESOSCALE MOISTENING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE RESULTING
IN MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850-700MB.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPEARS NEARLY NONEXISTENT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
NOCTURNAL LLJ...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG SRN EDGE
OF UPPER JET...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS
THAT LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

LATEST 03Z RUC RUN SEEMS TO SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE
WAVE/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE IA/MN BORDER THROUGH 09Z...WHILE EARLIER
ETA MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE LIMITED STORM COVERAGE. IF MCS SCENARIO
UNFOLDS...INCREASING COVERAGE AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 05/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

42559277 43159627 44079643 44599550 44899226 43399082 

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