[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272132 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/PARTS OF THE OK TX PNHDLS AND WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272132Z - 272330Z

TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF WRN OK/TX PNHDLS. ACTVTY
COULD THEN SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX BY LATER IN THE EVENING. A
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

NUMEROUS TSTM HAVE FIRED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ACROSS SRN CO AND
NRN NM. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ACTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT FROM NERN NM INTO THE NWRN TX PNHDL. AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S F AND DEWPOINTS NEARING 60F. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LIMITED
INHIBITION...WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AID ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL DEEP LAYER SPEED
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL N/NWLY IS FCST
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR
MULTICELL STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THERMAL
GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

35830444 37230214 36780163 34660178 33150234 32270303
32230382 33310511 

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