[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252043 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-252245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SC INTO CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252043Z - 252245Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF WW.

AXIS OF STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB/ HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...
ROUGHLY WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE PROMINENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.  LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA.  THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF AUGUSTA APPEAR TO BE NEAR
LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE 26/02-03Z
TIME FRAME.

LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT WILL ENHANCE PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH VERY
WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F AND MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER DOWNBURSTS...BUT SOMEWHAT BROADER SWATH
OF CONVECTION APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COLUMBA SC AREA BY AROUND 26/00Z...POSSIBLY INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
FAYETTEVILLE BY 26/02Z.

..KERR.. 06/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

33648238 34318151 34788016 35367908 34617869 33917962
33418069 32588243 33288225 

WWWW