[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231655 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-231900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231655Z - 231900Z

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ORF/DAN/TRI/CSV...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND AND/OR WARM
CONVEYOR BELT CIRRUS. SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ACROSS SERN
VA AND CNTR/ERN NC...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. SFC BASED CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HINTING THAT INHIBITION IS QUICKLY
WEAKENING AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. 

LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM PER LATEST
ANALYSIS DATA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE AROUND 30-35 KT...WHICH IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS TO FORM. VAD WIND DATA
FROM ROANOKE SHOW ABOUT 35 KT DEEP LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THIS PROFILE ALONG WITH LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS OF
STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY
LARGE HAIL.

..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

37117603 37627830 36298090 35228133 34737975 33957839
34717682 

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