[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180038 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...491...

VALID 180038Z - 180245Z

LATEST RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL LARGE SUPERCELLS FROM
SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STORMS OVER SERN CO AS WELL AS THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE ARE ALONG WARM FRONT.  SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED IN THESE
AREAS WITH 0-1 SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2.

00Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE
NECESSARY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL CIN. 
THEREFORE...GIVEN COOLER AIR OVER SWRN KS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE
STABLE SURFACE LAYER.  HOWEVER...SURFACE AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE.

STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WELL ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
WILL LIKELY BE INGESTING A MIXTURE OF ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED
AIR.  SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO DAMAGING BOWS AS THEY CONTINUE
EWD...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 06/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

32880022 32900487 39210501 39169991 36939997 

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