[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172337 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-180030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/DE/MD/PORTIONS OF NRN-ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488...

VALID 172337Z - 180030Z

DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 488.

VAD WINDS FROM PA/NJ SWD ACROSS MD INDICATE 40-50 KT OF WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ONGOING STORMS AND ANY NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS
THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS...WITH REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWING A SMALL BOW ECHO MOVING ESE AT 40 KT INTO CENTRAL NJ
POSING THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ATTM.

A GREATER THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS
OF WW 488 FROM MD/ERN VA AND EWD TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AS THIS REGION REMAINS CLOSER TO STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-3000 J/KG/.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN PORTION OF WW
488...IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR NRN
VA BETWEEN 00-01Z.

..PETERS.. 06/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

41047557 40787356 39727278 37077736 39167882 40507646 

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