[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161812 
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-162045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM...WRN KS AND THE WRN OK
PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161812Z - 162045Z

TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NERN NM
AND CNTRL CO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OTHERS DEVELOPING ONTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS AROUND 22Z.  A TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER
SERN CO...NERN NM...EXTREME SWRN KS AND WRN OK PNHDL AND A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.  FARTHER NORTH...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY TSTMS...BUT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF BURLINGTON-
NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS THEN NWD ALONG THE DIVIDE.  A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY /OUTFLOW/ WAS ARCING JUST S OF PUEBLO-LA JUNTA-LAMAR EWD TO
MIDWAY BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE SC IS GRADUALLY ERODING BETWEEN THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES.  MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE COMMON WWD TO LA JUNTA WITH MID
50S BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS BENEATH VERY STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE... CINH WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE AND MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS
SERN CO.

TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COULD
DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS QUICKLY BETWEEN 20-22Z.  UPSTREAM
AZTEC PROFILER SHOWS NEAR 40 KTS OF FLOW ABOVE 4KM AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. 
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL
PROFILE WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN KS...NERN NM AND THE
WRN OK PNHDL.

FARTHER NORTH...TSTMS FORMING OVER THE NCNTRL CO ROCKIES WILL LIKELY
 SPREAD ENEWD ABOVE THE DEEPER COLD DOME FROM DENVER EAST. 
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE SHOULD EXIST FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAILSTONES.

..RACY.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

36580141 36410397 37520468 38660468 38630370 38550210
37800128 

39530550 40400569 40910548 40900428 40320212 39360135
38930178 38660258 38780477 

WWWW