[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161740 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 161740Z - 161915Z

TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO MAY POSE A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN ISOLD SEVERE RISKS.

VSBL SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY
ACROSS NERN KS VCNTY TOPEKA.  CAP IS ERODING QUICKLY OWING TO
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE.  MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
SITUATED THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA. REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS
SUGGEST THAT THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH
7KM.  THUS...TSTMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REMAINING ORGANIZED FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...MAY
AUGMENT UPDRAFTS ACCELERATION AND TSTMS MAY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY AND BECOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

..RACY.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

38619764 39659628 40489536 40529367 39749305 38279350
37509513 37529733 

WWWW