[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160007 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NEB...ERN SD...NW IA AND SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478...

VALID 160007Z - 160100Z

WW 478 REMAINS LARGELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING ADDITIONAL INITIATION IN MUCH OF
THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP...WW 478 MIGHT BE CANCELLED
BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH SERN SD INTO NRN NEB
FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN SD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THIS
LOW THROUGH ERN SD INTO SW MN AND NW IA. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS
CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEW STORMS MAY
STILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INITIAL SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERN
SD HAS DISSIPATED. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FARTHER
NE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
MIGRATING EWD ACROSS NRN ND AND MN. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER MASS
INFLOW AND FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NE INTO THE COOLER LESS
STABLE REGIME. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING LOWERS
CONFIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST IN WW 478.

..DIAL.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

43559498 42469522 42179659 42429795 42889811 44309792
44769711 44749527 

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