[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151354 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-151600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL/SRN IND AND WCNTRL/SWRN OH

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 151354Z - 151600Z

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY ISOLD AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONT ORIENTED E-W SITUATED FROM CNTRL IL
INTO CNTRL OH. AIR MASS VCNTY FRONT WAS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH.  12Z H5 CHART DEPICTS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH IL AND IS AIDING A CLUSTER
OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL IL.  THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP EWD
ALONG THE FRONT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MIDLEVEL RIDGE HAS EXPANDED NWD...WITH FASTER CORRIDOR OF WLYS NOW
LOCATED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  VWPS FROM NORTH WEBSTER/
INDIANAPOLIS/WILMINGTON AND PROFILER AT WOLCOTT IND SUGGEST THAT
TSTM CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME.  THUS...STRONG BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
ARE PROBABLY NOT LIKELY.  THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM
WILMINGTON...HOWEVER...DOES SHOW HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE
CLOUD LAYER THAT MAY RESULT IN DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION. DCAPE ACROSS
THE REGION CURRENTLY IS IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE.  THUS... ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..RACY.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...LSX...

40038989 40288618 40438402 40308296 39218302 38908546
38818944 

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