[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151207 
MOZ000-KSZ000-151330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS INTO  W CNTRL/SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...

VALID 151207Z - 151330Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING INTO MID
MORNING...AND NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

STRONGER SURFACE COLD POOL AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS NOW
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF EMPORIA AND WICHITA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
SPREADING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO THE SOUTH OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF KANSAS
CITY INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

WHILE CURRENT 40 KT FORWARD MOTION INDICATES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS EAST OF THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW BY 13Z...POSSIBLY
INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD BY 15Z...ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT ONGOING WEAKENING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE.  MID/UPPER RIDGING
EAST THROUGH NORTH OF CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVE
INHIBITIVE TO THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WELL.

..KERR.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38189559 38719534 38579405 38049331 37089357 37079542
37419598 37849597 

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