[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150213 
NYZ000-PAZ000-150315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...473...

VALID 150213Z - 150315Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. WW 470 AND 473 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER WW THAT WILL INCLUDE PARTS OF ERN PA AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN
NY.

ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL
AND SW PA. STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS LINE REMAIN OVER PA WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
A COUPLE OF ROTATING COMMA HEADS WERE ALSO NOTED. ONE OVER SRN NY
AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL PA. GREATEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE S OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS NRN AND SRN PA WHERE
STRONGER REAR INFLOW JETS ARE PROMOTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...AND IF STORMS APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..DIAL.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...

39917855 41077737 42037665 42567585 42327512 41137525
39817626 

WWWW