[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131645 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-131815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WI...FAR NERN IL...LOWER MI...AND
CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131645Z - 131815Z

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN WI WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO
CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
BY MID-AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS LOWER
MI.

MESOSCALE VORT CENTER CENTERED 35N MSN AT 16Z WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NEWD TOWARD NRN LAKE MI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCED BY UPSTREAM SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY
OVER WRN MN. A SUBSYNOPTIC LOW IS CENTERED OVER E-CENTRAL WI WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI. A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SWD INTO NRN IL. THE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS
SUPPORTED BY PVA AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORNING APX SOUNDING
SUGGESTS AIR MASS NORTH OF WARM FRONT IS STRONGLY CAPPED...WHICH
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG
REFLECTIVITY LINE NEAR/NORTH OF GRB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS THE U.P. AS FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.

SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE MOVING EWD TOWARD SERN WI/FAR NERN IL WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LAKE
BREEZE ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZE ACROSS ALL OF LOWER MI OWING TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN MI...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED
QUICKLY IN LAKE MICHIGAN/WRN LOWER MI VICINITY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MOVEMENT LIKELY ENEWD AT 25-30KT. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LCL
HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS LOWER MI BY MID-AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...

41718284 43468312 45818478 46608587 46648684 46508789
45428863 43958857 43078853 42438846 41958822 41798784
41868634 

WWWW