[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131529 
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TN NRN MS WRN KY NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131529Z - 131730Z

A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS TN...NRN AL...NRN GA AND FAR WRN
NC.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR PART OF THIS REGION...MOST LIKELY
INTO WRN TN/NRN MS.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS ERN KY AND ERN TN...WITH AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN AR.  WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF TN.  THE 12Z SOUNDING AT
BNA SHOWED ABOUT 25 KT AT 500 MB...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.  STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34188950 34579040 36059018 36748770 37158513 36548474
34968539 

WWWW