[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130644 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W CENTRAL AND SWRN MO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...

VALID 130644Z - 130815Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA ATTM...ALTHOUGH SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.

MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS OK / CENTRAL AND SRN KS
INTO SWRN MO ATTM...NEAR AND S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW / BAROCLINIC
ZONE.  LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
FROM EAST OF DDC TOWARD ICT...BUT A SWD SURGE AT 30 KT IS INDICATED
OVER SERN KS TOWARD NERN OK WHERE SWD-MOVING COLD-POOL AND SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE STRONG LOW-LEVEL UVV ALONG
AND N OF GUST FRONT.

ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...DEEP-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
JET.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF ANY ISOLATED STORMS
MAY REMAIN LIMITED -- WITH HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. 
ELSEWHERE...WHERE MORE LINEAR STORM ORGANIZATION PERSISTS...LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE LINES.  HOWEVER...WE
REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE / DAMAGING GUSTS. 
GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SERN KS / NERN OK AHEAD OF
SWD-SURGING LINE -- WHICH WILL REACH THE KS-OK BORDER / SRN PORTIONS
OF WW NEAR ITS 13/08Z EXPIRATION.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION FOR POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW INTO PARTS
OF NRN OK.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST OVER
PARTS OF KS -- PARTICULARLY FROM NEAR ICT WWD INTO KIOWA / EDWARDS
COUNTIES WHERE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38529655 37839373 36939364 36149491 35939636 36709740
37669945 38189814 

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