[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120057 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-120230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN/NRN IA INTO WRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 438...

VALID 120057Z - 120230Z

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 438.

AS OF 0038Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF
EVOLVING MCS FROM BARRON/POLK COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL WI SWD THROUGH
FILLMORE COUNTY MN AND INTO WEBSTER COUNTY IA. THE ANCHOR STORM OVER
WEBSTER COUNTY IS EXHIBITING STRONG MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS IS A STORM
OVER OLMSTED COUNTY IN FAR SERN MN...WHERE CONVECTIVE LINE IS
INTERSECTING WARM FRONT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WRN
IA AND S OF WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM S OF RST TO E OF DBQ/ REMAINS
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG.

WHILE LFC/LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORABLY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF WARM
SECTOR AIRMASS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NERN IA. THUS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING SUPERCELL OVER WEBSTER
COUNTY...AS WELL AS ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
BUOYANCY/SHEAR ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT.

FARTHER N...00Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED STABLE NEAR GROUND LAYER WITH
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS. EXPECT STRONGEST
STORMS TO POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL WI. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 438

..MEAD.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

45799649 45789001 43188947 43189094 42269060 42249490 

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