[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111755 
IAZ000-MNZ000-112030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111755Z - 112030Z

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN IA/SRN MN
DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.

17Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A 1000MB SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW
CENTERED 25 SE SUX...WITH A WARM FRONT BULGING NWD ACROSS NWRN IA
AND THEN ESEWD INTO E-CENTRAL IA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE WARM FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS NWRN IA AND WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN IA WITH 100MB
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RAPIDLY
ADVANCE NWD INTO SWRN/SRN MN WITH PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT.

CAPPING INVERSION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN ACROSS NWRN IA/SWRN MN DURING
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST AND NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER SHIFTS EWD. RAPID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER THROUGH 21Z.
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS
ACROSS SRN MN AND FAR NRN IA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

43289605 44839604 45109541 44849374 44609267 43489195
42549214 42239376 42269544 42499586 

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