[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111709 
SDZ000-NDZ000-111915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND N-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111709Z - 111915Z

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ND SWD INTO NRN SD
DURING 19-21Z PERIOD. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. 

HEIGHT FALLS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-17C AT 500MB/ ACROSS SWRN
SD AT 12Z WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL ND DURING THE MAX SURFACE
HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG EWD MOVING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...LIKELY DURING MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AT 16Z...THE
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE PARENT CYCLONE NEAR ISN...SWD TO 30E DIK TO
20E PHP. ANTICIPATE MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY 20Z WITH DEVELOPING
ARCING LINE OF CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS FROM
CENTRAL ND SWD INTO NRN SD IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WBZ HEIGHTS OF
7-8 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
ROTATING CELLS. SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW EVIDENT ON BIS VAD AND MODERATE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT.

..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46110156 47090213 47890275 48440254 48920195 48930025
48919877 45259777 44689864 44820119 

WWWW