[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102037 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...ERN OK/TX PNHDLS...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102037Z - 102200Z

ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM
WRN KS SWD TO THE ERN TX PNHDL AND WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.

DRYLINE IS MIXING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS STILL
EXHIBIT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUT RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR
ANTICIPATED SURFACE CONDITIONS REVEAL THAT CAP SHOULD BE LOCALLY
WEAKENED FOR STORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z/4PM CDT. MODEST DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH MAY FURTHER AID STORM
INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ADEQUATE
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION GIVEN 15-30KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY
STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
EXHIBIT SUPERCELLS CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

38219913 35499935 34419988 34500043 35230091 36570043
37460045 37990098 38410150 39910122 39910066 39939955 

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