[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092013 
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ID AND SWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092013Z - 092145Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TETONS AND BITTERROOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND STRONG LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ACT ON
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA FROM
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST MLCAPE COULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 500-1200
J/KG AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND STRONG HEATING CONTINUES. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN STORMS DEVELOPING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SERN ID.
VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE
OF FAST MOVING STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...GENERATING
HIGH/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

42091101 42061508 43251573 44631432 45791363 45521106 

WWWW