[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091521 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-091715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091521Z - 091715Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF LWR MI/NRN IND AND NWRN OH INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER
MI WITH OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SHOULD FURTHER BOOST INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST OVER SWRN MI MAY
INTENSIFY AS THIS INSTABILITY IS TAPPED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...
WITH 20-30KT WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OFFSET BY FRONTAL CIRCULATION...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...AND ANTICIPATED
STORM COVERAGE TO RESULT IN A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE DAMAGING
WIND EVENTS.

..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

41458323 41308585 41368687 43218653 43918263 42918239