[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091411 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-091615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...VT...NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091411Z - 091615Z

CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN NY AND NRN/CNTRL VT AND NRN NH INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BEFORE NOON.

SMALL SCALE LINEAR MCS WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KT AND WILL CROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AND MOVE INTO NRN NY SHORTLY. AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD WIND DAMAGE.

STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NOW SITUATED
NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...LATEST ETA RUN APPEARS
TO BACK OFF A BIT ON CONVECTIVE QPF AND STRENGTH OF UVV ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
NONETHELESS...MODERATE AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE
OF MODEST AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW...AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY.

..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43697244 43287683 45467597 45267096 

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