[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090120 
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 090120Z - 090315Z

WWS 409/410 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 02Z...BUT FINAL
DETERMINATION WILL BE MADE AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED WFOS.

SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE INDICATES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP AND SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG.  THIS MAY
BECOME GREATER THIS EVENING AS NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN CONTRIBUTES
TO MOISTENING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST
FORCING ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z.

FARTHER NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTING VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF VALENTINE NEB...PAST
FEW HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS UPSTREAM
NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CONVECTION SPREADS/DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD.

..KERR.. 06/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

40090063 39750191 40070308 41430301 42090189 42790122
43460024 43469929 42699878 41779853 

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