[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090054 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-090300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN THROUGH S CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 090054Z - 090300Z

NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DOWNSTREAM OF POSSIBLE ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW TO THE
WEST OF MASON CITY IA...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/DEFORMATION ZONE
EXTENDS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS IS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR INCREASING
CONVECTION...IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  RATHER WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY MARGINALIZE HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER CORES ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 

WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ROOTED ABOVE
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION...TRAINING ALONG/NORTH OF 20 TO 30 KT WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  IF UPSTREAM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE/DEVELOP A SURFACE COLD POOL...THIS APPEARS TO PROVIDE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO...TOWARD THE LA CROSSE AREA BY 05-06Z.

..KERR.. 06/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX...

43899256 44489198 44529070 44248827 43708768 43218798
43148969 43019084 42779160 42799265 43019286 43229278 

WWWW