[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050443 
TXZ000-050645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050443Z - 050645Z

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY PERSIST
WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

VIGOROUS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
OF THE CHILDRESS/LUBBOCK AREAS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME AIDING SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CLUSTER INTO
30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL...SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW APPEARS ON
THE ORDER OF 60+ KT.  

VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PLATEAU.  MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS NEAR/WEST OF ABILENE BY
07-08Z...AND THE SAN ANGELO AREA BY 09-10Z.  NARROW TONGUE OF
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...UNAFFECTED
BY PRIOR CONVECTION...AND APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.

THOUGH BASE OF UPDRAFTS/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ABOVE
DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
PERTURBATION AND RISK OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 06/05/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

33539935 32639879 31379897 30790010 31550143 32290177
33250168 33050058 33240022 

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