[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042220 
NCZ000-SCZ000-050015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042220Z - 050015Z

SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE MARGINAL...AND NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.

MID/UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IN THE IMMEDIATE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS...JUST AHEAD OF
WEAK LOW NOW NEAR/EAST OF GREENVILLE NC.  COLD FRONT WEST OF LOW IS
BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORENCE/COLUMBIA AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE
FAIRLY WEAK NEAR THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN
STRONGER CELLS BEFORE ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

OTHERWISE...BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE EAST OF
SURFACE LOW ACROSS COASTAL AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUPPORTS
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE LINE.  WITH LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT... LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 06/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

35897724 36457685 35827556 34907569 33797785 33587904
33438069 34068217 34848185 34978016 34967882 

WWWW