[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011511
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011511 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA TO NRN
VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011511Z - 011615Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/PA SWD TO NRN
VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN NY SWWD
TO WRN VA ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS MOIST WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING THE CIN IS
WEAKENING WITH TIME.  THE AREA FROM CENTRAL-ERN NY SWD TO PORTIONS
OF VA/MD IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/MCV OVER ERN OH ATTM...WITH A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ACROSS NERN
KY.  THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN...
GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED AND EXPECTED WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NRN VA/MD TO ERN PA/ERN
NY AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION.

..PETERS.. 06/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...

42057815 43127789 43877481 42817411 41367429 38497506
37277569 37587837 39647886 41577847 

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