[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010431 
TXZ000-010530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN / SERN TX...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362...

VALID 010431Z - 010530Z

SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR STORMS TO BEGIN A MORE SWD PROPAGATION.  WW CONTINUES...WITH
NEWLY-ISSUED WW 363 SOUTH OF WW 362 COVERING THE THREAT FOR SWD
PROPAGATION OF SEVERE THREAT.

SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...WITH
PERSISTENT STORM REDEVELOPMENT INDICATED IN WRN PORTIONS OF WW OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE NEAR / JUST N OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY.  WITH VERY MOIST /UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS/ LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS AND CORRESPONDING AXIS OF WEAKLY-CAPPED 3000-4000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXTENDING SEWD TO GALVESTON BAY...THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO EXIST FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE MOVED GENERALLY SEWD THIS EVENING...INCREASING
SLY / SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SSEWD
PROPAGATION OF STORMS WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF
INSTABILITY AXIS.  EITHER WAY...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS WW AND
INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 363 THROUGH AT LEAST 01/07Z.

..GOSS.. 06/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

32849748 31929463 29649463 29029517 28779581 29419707
30909752 

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