[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010125 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-010330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0825 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL MO...CENTRAL IL...N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
IND...FAR WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010125Z - 010330Z

THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 03Z. 

AT 0115Z...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS EXTEND FROM NERN IND
SWWD INTO THE STL METRO AREA. LINE MOTIONS ARE MODERATELY
FAST...ESEWD AT 30-35 KT. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...SFC-850MB
LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY ENHANCING EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN
DOWNDRAFTS. MUCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL / 500-1000 J/KG / AND DIURNAL
COOLING SHOULD REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AS
STORMS WEAKEN AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THUS...THREAT OF WIND
DAMAGING IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z.

..BANACOS.. 06/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

39169183 39099079 39558974 40128827 40438753 41108579
41258495 40718449 40078493 38788802 38118968 38169188