[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301909 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-302115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MN/WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301909Z - 302115Z

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW NEAR LVN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD NEAR FSD. SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MN
ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. STORMS HAVE BEEN BUBBLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING FROM THE SW SUBURBS OF THE TWIN
CITIES SOUTH TO NEAR THE IA BORDER. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS S
CNTRL MN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM SUGGEST THERE IS
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT PER LATEST VAD WIND DATA SHOULD FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. 

AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN.

..TAYLOR.. 07/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

43429110 43529386 44729398 45219348 45189126 44599001
43588974 

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