[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301854 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-302100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN/N CNTRL KY THROUGH MUCH OF OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301854Z - 302100Z

RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.  WW COULD
BECOME NECESSARY.

RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.  THIS IS OCCURRING AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... WITH
LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS...HEATS TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
LIFTING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. 
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL STRENGTH ACROSS OHIO AS BULK OF
RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPREADS NORTH OF THE RIVER.  DEW
POINTS ACROSS OHIO ARE CLIMBING TOWARD 70F...AND WITH MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE.

EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS/MANSFIELD AREAS OF
CENTRAL OHIO.  AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LIKELY WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 40
KT LOW/MID-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY GETS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. 
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...FAVORABLY MOIST/BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS MAY ALSO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 07/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

39778449 40218402 40918370 41668302 41678118 40418080
39058252 39398208 38488366 38238465 38728488 39078520 

WWWW