[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212043 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212043Z - 212215Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SE SD...NW IA...AND SW MN.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WEATHER WATCH...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE INITIATED EAST OF SFD IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE ONGOING
STORMS...AND INCREASING TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN NW IA.  POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THESE STORMS
AS THEY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SE
SD AND NW IA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS IN THE AIRMASS OVER WW662...HOWEVER...RUC POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WEAK FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM...MAINLY MULTICELL TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

..LEVIT.. 07/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

42639663 42629572 43129498 43649487 44109485 44229560
44149736 44099856 44089912 43869961 43059955 42969901
42859816 

WWWW