[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211830 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-212030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...EXTREME W CENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211830Z - 212030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.  OUTLOOK WILL BE AMENDED TO UPGRADE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITHIN WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AREA WITH MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500 DEVELOPING.  FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN
PLACE DUE TO COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10.  UNIDIRECTIONAL
WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL MAKE FOR LONG STRAIGHT LINE
HODOGRAPHS AND SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME
THEY GET INTO NERN SD WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.  A
FEW HAIL STONES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

45100033 46359884 46399668 45359586 43969651 44809980 

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