[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211610 
MIZ000-211815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211610Z - 211815Z

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

FULL INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR
MASS ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG IN PLACE ATTM.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/RUC40 SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT ONLY A SMALL NEGATIVE AREA REMAINS AND WILL PROBABLY BE
ERASED WITH A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF WARMING.  THUS...TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 

CURRENT VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE LOW-MIDLEVELS OF
THE COLUMN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER LOWER MI ATTM. 
UPSTREAM...HOWEVER...GREEN BAY AND SULLIVAN WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT
THE FLOW ABOVE 2 KM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE.  AS THE MCV ROTATING
OVER CNTRL WI MOVES ENEWD TOWARD LOWER MI...THE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND...CONSEQUENTLY...DAMAGING WIND THREATS
WILL INCREASE. HIGHER END WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SWD INTO THE MIDWEST.

..RACY.. 07/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

43098618 44468655 45508606 45768462 45118327 43168367 

WWWW