[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211253 
ILZ000-WIZ000-211500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211253Z - 211500Z

GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BECOME INCREASING THREAT
THIS MORNING.

MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL MOIST PLUME
EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL/MESO HIGH APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND IS ADVANCING EASTWARD AROUND 30 KT.  WEAK MEAN FLOW
REGIME AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED
WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...IS
MARGINALIZING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...AS MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BEGINS TO WARM WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RISK OF STRONGER
SURFACE GUSTS NEARING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS BY 15-16Z TIME
FRAME.

..KERR.. 07/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

43358957 43668908 43228837 43058793 42308775 41838775
41868859 42268929 42338985 42728945 43038932 

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