[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210408 
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN THROUGH EXTREME NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210408Z - 210545Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST INTO SERN MN AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME NRN IA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF TRENDS BEGIN TO
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED.

THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS...MOSTLY ELEVATED...ARE
MOVING EWD AND NEWD THROUGH SWRN MN.  WEAK WARM FRONT WITH ATTENDANT
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM ERN SD SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA. SWLY
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS IA...AND THIS
WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM SRN MN INTO NERN IA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7C/KM. THOUGH CLOUD LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THREAT OF HAIL. ALSO RADAR DATA SHOWS A MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH
JACKSON AND COTTONWOOD COUNTIES. THIS CLUSTER STILL APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND FORWARD PROPAGATING WHICH SUGGEST SOME THREAT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL EXIST.

..DIAL.. 07/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

43219200 43349465 45049443 44999320 44269182 

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