[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170218 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-170345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR INTO NRN LA AND WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170218Z - 170345Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR DEVELOPING TSTMS.

REGIONAL RADAR AND LDS DISPLAY INDICATE TSTMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING E
AND SE OF LIT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHALLOWER CONVECTION TO
THE W OVER W-CNTRL AR. TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING NEAR INTERSECTION
SW-NE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED MORE N-S OVER ERN AR
INTO NERN LA. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 00Z LIT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STILL REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG.
PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN OBSERVED ON AREA PROFILERS/VWPS SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED GROWTH OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH
POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT WOULD MOVE
SSEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM SERN AR INTO
SWRN MS/SERN LA.

GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH DEVELOPING
STORMS.

..MEAD.. 07/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

34899306 35099054 31208944 30949170 

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