[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161945 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-162115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN IL...N-CENTRAL/NWRN IND...AND
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647...

VALID 161945Z - 162115Z

CONTINUE WW.

AT 1930Z...SEVERAL WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE FROM
25NW MLI EWD INTO NWRN IND. ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE
ADJACENT TO THE WATCH AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WI AND PORTIONS OF
LOWER MI. STORM MOTION WAS GENERALLY 340/20-25 KT.

MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WWD TO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL WI AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG /60KT AT 10 KM PER
BLU PROFILER/...STORMS HAVE NOT BECOME VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON THE
MESOSCALE. ABSENCE OF CIN HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
IN A WIDELY SCATTERED FASHION. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED UNLESS GREATER MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. CELL MERGERS AND TRAINING OF
STORMS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /UP TO
2"/HR/ ACROSS NWRN IND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

40439225 42619210 42388576 40208585 

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