[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150307 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MT/WRN SD/NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634...

VALID 150307Z - 150400Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 0250Z...TWO SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL WERE
LOCATED OVER BOWMAN COUNTY ND AND BUTTE COUNTY SD MOVING 345/30KTS.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH MLCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55KTS AND 0-1KM SRH OF
100-150 M2/S2. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...NON-HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH MESOCYCLONES SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
OVERCOME STRENGTHENING CAP FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS...MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF SUPERCELLS
CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT NEAR-STEADY STATE...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

45740569 45690256 43030245 42990546 

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